Community Banks Are Losing the Front Door, and Deposits Are Following
Customer inertia
has quietly funded deposit profitability for decades. AI agents and wallet apps
are removing it, and matching rates will not be enough of a response.
For
as long as most bankers have been in the business, deposit profitability has
rested on the assumption that customers who could earn more somewhere else
usually did not bother to move. The work of opening a new account, redirecting
a direct deposit, and rebuilding a list of bill payments was enough to keep
balances in place.That assumption is now being automated away. Roughly $23 trillion
of the $70 trillion held in global consumer banking sits in accounts paying
close to nothing, according to McKinsey’s 2025 Global Banking Annual Review. Global banking profit could potentially
shrink by about $170 billion, or 9%, once third-party AI agents begin shopping
rates and moving money on customers’ behalf. Consumer deposits and card lending
absorb the steepest
declines in that
scenario, since both have depended most on customers not paying close
attention. An agent that tells a customer they are leaving $2,000 a year on the
table, and can act on it in a few taps, does to switching costs what mobile
deposit did to branch traffic.
Many
believe this is a big bank problem. However, community banks and credit unions
have built their deposit franchises on relationships, proximity, and the trust
that comes from knowing a customer by name, all of which lose their protective
power the moment software makes the comparison and acts on it without a
conversation.
Balances are already moving
without anyone leaving
None of this waits on agentic AI to mature, because the same erosion is
already running through payments. Fintech competitors stopped attacking
checking accounts head-on some time ago, entering instead through debit
rewards, buy now pay later, peer-to-peer transfers, and wallets, then
assembling those pieces into apps or platforms where customers actually manage
money. J.D. Power found measurable attrition at incumbent
institutions from exactly that pattern.
What makes it difficult to see from inside the
institution is that nobody closes an account. Analysts call the behavior soft
switching. In fact, a 2026 survey found
one in five account holders had moved money away from their primary financial
institution within the previous three months. The account stays open, the statement still
carries the institution’s name, and the balance, the transaction volume, and
the engagement have all gone somewhere else.
Rate matching is a weak
answer to an interface problem
Faced with softening balances, most
institutions reach for price, which is the one lever that reliably makes the
underlying problem worse. Competing on rate against a fintech with no branch
network and no legacy costs compresses margin without touching the reason the
customer drifted in the first place: the other platform was faster and easier
to use. A better rate does not repair an experience gap, and it does not win
back the interface where the next money decision gets made.
That interface experience is what the competition is
actually for, and it narrows the strategic question to one a management team
can answer in a single meeting: Can we be the place where a customer opens the
next account, applies for the next loan, and moves the next dollar?
What owning the front door
requires: 4 crucial capabilities
Answering
yes depends on a handful of operational capabilities, most of which have little
to do with marketing.
The first is speed to open, measured honestly,
not by the best-case number in a brochure, but by the median time from the
start of an application to a fully funded account, including manual reviews,
document collection, and any required follow-up. Customers have grown
accustomed to opening financial accounts in minutes. When opening a
small-business checking account at a local institution takes 11 days and
requires a branch visit, the institution may lose that relationship before it
even realizes the customer is considering other options.
Speed
at the front-end matters less if the second account is as hard to get as the
first. Continuity across products means a customer who opens a deposit account
can apply for a loan without re-entering identity information, re-uploading
documents, or restarting verification, because every point where a customer
must repeat themselves is a point where they can leave. That continuity also
produces something institutions rarely have, which is deposit, lending, wealth
management, treasury management, and risk visible in one place at the same
time. Pricing and retention decisions depend on precisely that view, and
institutions running a separate system for each function end up reassembling it
by hand, weeks after the moment it would have been useful.
Strategic and welcome use of AI in workflows is
the third capability, and banks that prioritize the streamlining of processes
will rarely forfeit new relationships and retention. Both consumers and
business owners expect secure, AI-aided workflows in place of manual processes.
Retaining deposits depends on financial institutions’ adaptation to those
products and processes that prevent agents from moving the accounts or, more
commonly, soft switching.
The final capability is the ability to adapt
quickly. When a competitor introduces a product or feature that customers
value, financial institutions need to be able to respond without spending
months implementing new technology. Institutions that require several quarters
to introduce comparable capabilities risk falling further behind customer
expectations and the competitors already meeting them.
Where the fragmentation shows
up
Most institutions struggle to deliver those
capabilities because their technology systems are outdated and disconnected,
not because they lack the right strategy. Account opening runs on one vendor,
KYC/ KYB on another, consumer lending somewhere else, business lending on yet
another, and treasury services on a platform that predates all of it. Staff
move between systems to complete a single application,
and
every handoff adds delay, rekeyed data, and another opportunity for the
applicant to abandon. The customer experiences all of that as slowness, without
ever knowing what caused it.
Consolidating that architecture is what closes
the gap. When onboarding deposits, lending, wealth management, and treasury
management with risk decisioning on a single platform of record, an institution
can open an account, verify a business, originate a loan, and service the
relationship without passing work between disconnected systems. The efficiency
gain is the easiest part to measure, and the competitive effect is the part
that compounds, since an institution able to act in minutes stays in front of
the customer at the moment a decision is being made.
Three questions worth
answering this quarter
None
of this requires a strategic planning cycle to assess. How long does it truly
take, start to finish, for a new customer to open your most common account and
have it funded? How many separate systems does a staff member touch to complete
one business account opening? And when an existing customer wants a second
product, how much of what you already know about them do you ask for again?
The answers tend to be uncomfortable, and they are the clearest
predictor of which institutions hold their deposits regardless of what a
third-party agent recommends. The rest will keep the accounts and lose the
balances, which has always been the more expensive version of losing a
customer.
About Author:
Glenn Bolstad is CEO of Vikar Technologies, a banking
technology company that unifies the full client lifecycle for banks and credit
unions on one platform, spanning account opening and deposits, commercial and
SMB lending, treasury management, and wealth management.
